Some ranking Democrats fear that Donald Trump could win re-election next year by “a single electoral vote,” while again losing the popular vote, Axios reports.
In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote by almost 3 million votes, but won in the Electoral College by 74.
Here’s the party’s 2020 “nightmare scenario,” as laid out by Axios reporter Alexi McCammond:
The Democrats take two key states in Trump’s 2016 victory — Michigan and Pennsylvania — while increasing their grip on California and trimming their losing tally in Texas.
All that, predicts Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, will help the Dems win the national popular vote by nearly 5 million votes.
But Wasserman also predicts Trump will cling to narrow victories in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin — and keep the White House.
Axios quotes Jim Messina, President Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, as predicting the race will be decided by just two or three states.
“We could be sitting on Election Day not knowing who will win,” Messina said.
“Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA) pushed back on Wasserman’s assertion that Dems are likely to lose Wisconsin again,” Axios says, “arguing that’s why the DNC is hosting the 2020 convention in Milwaukee.”
But the Democrats’ 2016 national convention was in Philadelphia — and they lost Pennsylvania.