If you look at the national polling for Trump vs. various Democrats, the numbers look pretty good for the challengers. The swing state margins are much closer, but we ran across a number that seems very significant. It comes from an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll from over the weekend.
“First Read” Newsletter from Meet The Press writes:
“46 percent of registered voters say they are certain to vote AGAINST Trump in 2020, versus 34 percent who are certain to vote FOR him. Seventeen percent – made up disproportionately of independents, soft Republicans and younger voters – say they might vote either way depending on the nominee.“
That is a huge gap, and Trump has less than a year to make it up. From “First Read:”
“In the Dec. 2011 NBC/WSJ poll, by comparison, 34 percent said they were certain to vote FOR Barack Obama, 37 percent said they were certain to vote AGAINST him and 27 percent said they might vote either way.
“In the end, Obama won 51 percent of the popular vote – so he won over more than half of that up-for-grabs vote.
“By contrast, Trump will need to win ALMOST ALL of that 17 percent up-for-grabs vote to reach 51 percent.“
Anything is possible in politics, but many minds are made up. He will need to do very well in the battleground states and benefit from a possible third-party challenger, according to “First Read.”
The poll, like others, showed that 49% of the country backed impeachment and removal from office for Donald Trump, but his base remains supportive, with 90% of Republicans opposing his removal.