Russian forces are circling Ukraine – on both land and at sea – in a steady escalation of provocative maneuvers that might signal a forthcoming clash. The United States and its NATO allies could be drawn into any conflict in order to curb Russia’s aggression, even though Ukraine is neither a NATO member or part of the European Union.
According to the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, the Russians have deployed more than 100,000 troops to the Ukrainian border and to Crimea. Russian forces annexed Crimia in 2014, in what the Brookings Institution describes as “the biggest land-grab in Europe since World War II.”
On Tuesday morning, in the latest sign of increased hostility, The Wall Street Journal reported that, “Russia has moved warplanes to Crimea and bases near Ukraine to an extent greater than has previously been disclosed, adding to its capability for political intimidation or military intervention.”
Also on Tuesday, Axios reported that “Russia has been holding last-minute military exercises near commercial shipping lanes in the Black Sea that threaten to strangle Ukraine’s economy.” The Russian presence “takes up 27% of the Black Sea — a proportion that has steadily crept up, in a sign of efforts to establish de facto control over international waters.”
The Wall Street Journal provides details on the potency of Russia’s buildup and where it might lead:
According to one U.S. military official, the Russian force currently includes 48 battalion tactical groups, which consist of several hundred soldiers and officers each. U.S. intelligence, however, hasn’t yet spotted all of the logistics capabilities and supporting units that would generally be used for a significant assault across the border into Ukraine, including ammunition stockpiles and deployable hospitals, the official said.
WSJ adds, “This is not a demonstration. It is preparation for a major offensive,” said Phillip Karber, president of the Potomac Foundation, a U.S. think tank, who has traveled extensively to the military front in Ukraine. “I am not predicting an attack, but within two weeks it will be an option at the Russians’ discretion.”
Last week, The New York Times provided a similar assessment of the situation:
Many Ukrainian military officials and volunteer fighters say that they still find it unlikely that Russia will openly invade Ukraine, and that they do not see evidence of an imminent offensive among the gathered Russian forces. But they speculate over other possibilities, including Russia’s possible recognition or annexation of the separatist-held territories in eastern Ukraine.
Axios adds that Russia has recently installed radars on gas platforms in Ukraine. A U.S. official said this type of weaponization of energy infrastructure raises concerns about the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The natural gas pipeline would connect Russia to Europe through the Baltic. Biden opposes the project, but Germany supports it. A German official recently said the pipeline would be an economic bridge connecting Europe and Russia, and it could encourage additional peaceful partnerships.
The Biden administration has suggested it is not eager to escalate any conflict with Russia, but it would take strong action if necessary.