Ohio Special Election Results Galvanize Democrats

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Defying all odds, the much anticipated special election for Ohio’s District 12 is still too close to call. As of Wednesday morning, GOP candidate Troy Balderson leads the Democratic opponent Danny O’Connor by about 1,700 votes, less than 1 percentage point and well within the margin of error. Around 8,000 absentee provisional votes still need to be counted as well. To put this in perspective, Donald Trump carried Ohio District 12 by 11 points back in the 2016 presidential election. This is seat that has safely been in Republican hands for three decades.

The Columbus Dispatch details what comes next: the provisional votes and absentee ballots need to be counted within the next 10 days:

“Balderson currently leads by 1,754 votes. O’Connor needs to win 79 percent of the remaining 8,483 uncounted ballots to make up the deficit. Once that final total is calculated, Ohio law requires a mandatory recount if the margin is within 0.5 points.”

Trump supported Balderson and jumped the gun on this race taking credit for his “great victory” last night.

Quoted in Politico, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez said that the Ohio election results give him strong optimism about what’s to come:

“In 2016 the Republican who ran for this seat won it by over 30 points. Here we are, we have a dead heat today, a rematch in 90 days,” stated Perez. “This gives me optimism, not only about this seat but about other House seats, the U.S. Senate and governor’s races.”

So even if Balderson gets a razor-thin win, many are interpreting this election as a good omen for a blue wave in the November Midterms. The Washington Post cites two major takeaways from last night’s results:

NPR goes one step further and claims that the “Trump Effect” could lead to a high turnout for the midterms pointing out that “there has been lots of energy, higher than in past years, and the Trump Effect could portend higher-than-usual turnout this fall.” For example, the voter turnout for the Ohio’s election was 37%, considerably high for a special election in a midterm year.

Whatever the result of the Ohio-12 special election, Democrats have every reason to feel encouraged and more confident about their prospects in the midterms. Also note that even if Balderson wins this one, the same two candidates will compete against each other again in a few months.