Last night in Arizona, a special election was held to fill a congressional seat that should have been an easy pickup for the GOP. It wasn’t. The party spent over a million dollars in a district that Donald Trump won by 21 points. In the end Republican Debbie Lesko won the race, but the margin will give her party pause.

The win reverses a tide of Democratic pickups in special elections. But the trend continues to shade blue. From Axios:

“Top Republicans have conceded for months that they’re likely lose the House in November’s midterms. But some well-wired operatives now tell Jonathan Swan and me that President Trump may face his real nightmare: losing the Senate, giving Democrats both ends of the Capitol, and one-third of the government.”

Here’s a headline from Wednesday’s The New York Times:

Republicans Lost Support in Every Special  Election Since Trump Became President

 

Also from Axios:”A Republican lobbyist who is well-connected in the Senate is becoming increasingly bearish about holding the chamber: “Everyone just universally assumed it would be status quo or Republicans would win a seat or two. And now it feels like Republicans are at a risk of losing one, which would be a 50-50 Senate or two, which would be a Democratic Senate.”