In the 2020 elections, incumbents in Congress had a 96% win rate.
That remarkable statistic demonstrates the staying power of establishment politicians. But in advance of the 2022 midterms, five Senators – all from the Republican party – have announced that they will not seek re-election. And a recent CNN report indicates that five additional members of the upper chamber are contemplating retirement.
Here’s a rundown.
Incumbents who have already announced they are not seeking re-election in 2022:
- Richard Burr (Republican-North Carolina) Donald Trump carried North Carolina by just 1 point in 2020, giving Democrats hope that they can flip the seat Burr is vacating. Cheri Beasley, the leading Democratic contender, was the first African American woman to serve as chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court. She narrowly lost her bid to retain that position in 2020, but she outperformed both Joe Biden and U.S. Senate nominee Cal Cal Cunningham state wide. Polls indicate that former Gov. Pat McCrory is the GOP favorite, but Trump has endorsed State Rep. Ted Budd for the position.
- Pat Toomey (Republican-Pennsylvania) CNN rates this seat the most likely to flip in 2022, and that prospect has enticed a number of big name Democrats, including U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, and rising progressive star Malcolm Kenyatta, a state representative. On the Republican side, combat veteran Sean Parnell was recently buoyed by a Trump endorsement.
- Rob Portman (Republican-Ohio) Ohio has become an increasingly red state in recent years – the GOP enjoys a large majority in the state legislature and the Ohio electorate voted to the right of Texas in the 2020 presidential race. That’s raised the stakes on the Republican primary for Portman’s seat, which has become a competition to see “who’s most likely to raise hell in Washington,” according to the Columbus Dispatch. Former State Treasurer Josh Mandel and author J.D. Vance are among the leading GOP contenders and both have tried to match Trump’s incendiary rhetoric. Rep. Tim Ryan is the Democratic Party’s best bet at the moment.
- Richard Shelby (Republican-Alabama) Alabama is a safe seat for Republicans. Rep. Mo Brooks, who spoke at the January 6th Stop the Steal rally that preceded the attack on the U.S. Capitol, has received high-profile endorsements from Trump, Sen. Rand Paul, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
- Roy Blunt (Republican – Missouri) Embattled former Gov. Eric Greitens, who resigned his post in 2018 amid sexual harassment allegations, is among the GOP contenders in this contest the Cook Political Report labels as “Solid Republican.” Mark McCloskey, the attorney who gained nationwide attention for waving a gun at Black Lives Matters protesters streaming past his house, is also running as Republican. So is Congressman Billy Long, who has Kellyanne Conway as an advisor.
Incumbents considering retirement instead of seeking re-election in 2022
- Chuck Grassley (Republican – Iowa) “Nearly two-thirds of likely voters, or 64%, say they think it’s time for someone new to hold Grassley’s seat,” reports The Des Moines Register. Grassley, who turn 88 September 17th, has been a Senator since 1980. CNN reports that he’s “moving up” the timing of his 2022 announcement amid pressure from constituents.
- John Thune (Republican – South Dakota) The No. 2 Senate GOP leader said he’ll make an announcement about his 2022 plans in the fall. Back in April, POLITICO reported that he felt that “the Senate has gone downhill since he first arrived in the upper chamber 16 years ago. He also expressed fears the Senate may get worse amid the progressive push by Democrats to gut the legislative filibuster.”
- Ron Johnson (Republican – Wisconsin) Johnson has said a decision on whether or not he’s seeking reelection is on “the back burner.” Earlier this summer, he told a conservative commentator that he “may not be the best candidate” for 2022, citing negative media coverage. CNN reports that Johnson’s seat is the second most likely to flip from red to blue.
- Patrick Leahy (Democrat – Vermont) Leahy, a 46-year veteran of the Senate, said he’ll make a decision on 2022 “after I go snow-shoeing and cross-country skiing.” Earlier this year, he told reporters, “If you’re hampered by worrying on every single vote and worrying about re-election all the time, you’re not a very effective senator. I look at the most effective senators, both Republicans and Democrats, they worried about the Senate first and foremost.”
- Lisa Murkowski (Republican – Alaska) Murkowski has been criticized by GOP colleagues for her criticism of Trump, who endorsed a Murkowski challenger in July. Murkowski has yet to commit to a re-election bid but she’s got plenty of money on hand to hold off rivals.