After months of seeing Joe Biden with a commanding lead in almost every poll, suddenly on Sunday, there was a blip, one survey that was eye-opening for both campaigns.
A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS shows Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump narrowing significantly. Back in early June, the poll showed Biden with a 14-point lead (Biden 55%/Trump 41%). Now in a poll conducted August 12-15, Biden has just 50%, while Trump has 46%. The poll caused a lot of chatter when it was released Sunday, but then early this morning an ABC News/Washington Post poll was released telling a different story. According to ABC, “Biden holds a 12 percentage-point lead over Trump among registered voters, 53-41%, and a similar 10 points among likely voters, 54-44%, with two and a half consequential months to go.”
Perhaps a more accurate picture is somewhere in the middle, that’s what a new poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal finds. NBC says:
According to the survey, Biden leads Trump nationally by 9 points among registered voters, 50 percent to 41 percent, and the former vice president holds double-digit advantages over Trump on the coronavirus, immigration, health care, race relations and uniting the country.
What should you decipher from all this? Experts say the CNN poll may be an outlier, but the bottom line is you should always look at the averages, not just one poll. Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com is the best to follow for long-term polling trends. Monday morning, his polling showed Donald Trump with a 54.2% disapproval rating vs. 42.2% approve.
