More than 7,000 Russian soldiers have died during the invasion of Ukraine, according to a “conservative” American intelligence estimates shared with The New York Times.
The “staggering number” exceeds the U.S. military’s death toll in both Iraq and Afghanistan, combined. Those conflicts lasted twenty years; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is less than a month old. Somewhere between 14,000 and 21,000 Russian troops are believed to be injured or wounded.
Pentagon officials told the Times that the high rate of casualties has a deleterious effect on both Russia’s psyche and its military’s ability to wage a war. The outlet reports:
“Losses like this affect morale and unit cohesion, especially since these soldiers don’t understand why they’re fighting,” said Evelyn Farkas, the top Pentagon official for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration. “Your overall situational awareness decreases. Someone’s got to drive, someone’s got to shoot.”
The high-profile deaths of several Russian generals – at least three of the twenty deployed to Ukraine have been “liquidated” – are particularly big coups for the Ukrainian resistance. Ukrainian troops have been able to locate the Russian military officials, according to multiple reports, because they’ve been using unsecured communication devices that are easily tracked, including cell phones.
Russia’s over-reliance on indiscriminate airstrikes “has helped camouflage the Russian military’s poor performance on the ground,” Pentagon officials told the Times.
Of course, the Kremlin’s vast censorship machine does everything it can to prevent the Russian public from learning about the harsh realties of its military campaign. But experts think the bad news will eventually break through. The Times reports:
“I don’t believe [Russian President Vladimir Putin] can wall off, indefinitely, Russians from the truth,” William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director, told the Senate last Thursday. “Especially as realities began to puncture that bubble, the realities of killed and wounded coming home, and the increasing number, the realities of the economic consequences for ordinary Russians, the realities of the horrific scenes of hospitals and schools being bombed next door in Ukraine, and of civilian casualties there as well.”
Rep. Jason Crow, a Democrat and combat veteran from Colorado, said “Russians haven’t even gotten to the worst of it, when they hit urban combat in the cities.” He predicted that Putin will press on anyway, saying “He is not willing to lose. He’s been backed into a corner and will continue to throw troops at the problem.”
The Times explains how the Pentagon determines troop casualty estimates:
The American officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters, caution that their numbers of Russian troop deaths are inexact, compiled through analysis of the news media, Ukrainian figures (which tend to be high, with the latest at 13,500), Russian figures (which tend to be low, with the latest at 498), satellite imagery and careful perusal of video images of Russian tanks and troops that come under fire.
