One of the primary goals of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was to stop Russia’s neighbors from joining NATO. New reporting suggests that plan has backfired.
On Monday, The Times wrote that Sweden and Finland may join the military alliance as soon as this summer.
Echoing that sentiment, CNN notes “that discussions about Sweden and Finland joining the bloc have gotten extremely serious since Russia’s invasion.” The outlet continues:
Public opinion in both countries about joining the defensive alliance has shifted significantly as Russia’s war in Ukraine wages on, with one former Finnish Prime Minister telling CNN the move to join “was pretty much a done deal on the 24th of February, when Russia invaded.”
“If you look at public opinion in Finland and Sweden, and how their views have changed dramatically over the past six weeks, I think it’s another example of how this has been a strategic failure,” one senior US State Department official said this week.
The BBC adds:
Finnish MPs are expected to receive a security report from intelligence officials this week, and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said she expects her government “will end the discussion before midsummer” on whether to make a membership application.
Finland shares a 1,340km (830 miles) long border with Russia and has been rattled by the invasion of Ukraine.
And Sweden’s ruling Social Democratic party, which has traditionally opposed Nato membership, said it is rethinking this position in light of Russia’s attack on its western neighbour. Party secretary Tobias Baudin told local media that the Nato review should be complete within the next few months.
“When Russia invaded Ukraine, Sweden’s security position changed fundamentally,” the party said in a statement on Monday.
“Russia has warned Finland and Sweden against joining Nato, arguing the move would not bring stability to Europe,” writes the BBC. “Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that ‘the alliance remains a tool geared towards confrontation.'”
CNN provides important context:
[Finland and Sweden] already have extremely close relationships with NATO and would be a huge asset, NATO officials told CNN, especially when it comes to intelligence sharing. While the level of intelligence sharing among Finland, Sweden and NATO has increased dramatically since the start of the war, one NATO official said, it is not at the level it would be if the countries were members of the bloc.
A European official noted that Finland and Sweden, should they join, would both be “net contributors” to NATO, given their supply of advanced fighter jets. Finland already operates Boeing F/A-18s and has ordered 64 Lockheed Martin F-35s.
Some officials even commented ironically that it would be one of the best things Putin has done to harden European security.”
Just imagine in however many months going from a NATO alliance that is 30 to 32 members strong,” another senior State Department official told reporters following the foreign ministerial in Brussels. “How this can be anything but a massive strategic blunder for Putin? That was a topic of conversation and multiple sessions over the past couple of days.”
