Dissent has begun to brew within the Kremlin.
Bloomberg, citing ten sources with “direct knowledge of the situation,” reports that a small circle of Russian elites believe the invasion of Ukraine “was a catastrophic mistake that will set the country back for years.”
Officials at the Federal Security Service, a successor to the KGB, are also growing increasingly frustrated, according to Bloomberg. They planned for the war to last a few weeks. It is quickly approaching its two month anniversary with no end in site.
Putin’s critics are watching in horror as Russian soldiers die and their economy falters. They believe he underestimated the U.S. response to the conflict and was caught flatfooted when Western countries issued crippling sanctions and began sending massive caches of weapons to Ukraine.
Putin also underestimated his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. He was convinced the actor turned politician would flee once the invasion began. Instead, Zelensky has rallied his country and inspired a fierce resistance that has stymied Russia’s objectives.
Now, some Putin’s critics “increasingly share the fear voiced by U.S. intelligence officials that Putin could turn to a limited use of nuclear weapons if faced with failure in a campaign he views as his historic mission,” writes Bloomberg.
The outlet adds:
To be sure, support for Putin’s war remains deep across much of Russia’s elite, with many insiders embracing in public and in private the Kremlin’s narrative that conflict with the West is inevitable and that the economy will adapt to the sweeping sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies. And public backing remains strong as the initial shock and disruption from sanctions has given way to a kind of surreal stability in Russia.
Still, more and more top insiders have come to believe that Putin’s commitment to continue the invasion will doom Russia to years of isolation and heightened tension that will leave its economy crippled, its security compromised and its global influence gutted.
Bloomberg reports that Putin has surrounded himself with a small circle of sycophants who seem committed to continuing the war no matter what the cost. Since the Kremlin has an iron grip on information within Russian, they are easily able to manipulate public sentiment with propaganda and lies.
Public criticism of Putin is limited because of his reputation for murdering dissidents. Some officials who tried to quit their posts after the invasion – like central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina – were forced to stay. Bloomberg reports that most Russian officials – even those who harbor doubts about Putin – believe the strongman will remain in power for the foreseeable future.
Bloomberg adds:
Among business tycoons, many of whom saw yachts, properties and other holdings seized under sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies, a few have been critical of the war — though without mentioning Putin.
Metals tycoon Oleg Deripaska called the war “insanity” in late March, saying it could have ended “three weeks ago through reasonable negotiation.” He warned fighting could continue for “several more years.”
