Russia said on Tuesday that some of the troops it deployed to its shared border with Ukraine are returning to their bases, a development The New York Times describes as “a tentative sign that Russia could be stepping away from the threat of an invasion.”
However, approximately 120,000 Russian troops remain on the border and Western officials still believe Russian President Vladimir Putin might initiate an attack, perhaps as soon as Wednesday.
Russia has framed the partial troop retreat as evidence that it has no plans to invade its neighbor and that Western nations – particularly the U.S. – have greatly exaggerated the chances of conflict. A Kremlin spokesperson said international concerns about an invasion are “ostentatious hysteria that is not based on anything.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov went so far as to suggest that the U.S. was intentionally pedaling misinformation in order to claim a diplomatic victory.
“The West, if it hasn’t already, will say: ‘See, as soon as we pressured them and Biden snapped, they immediately got scared and fulfilled our demands,’”Lavrov said at a news conference on Monday. “This is selling air — our Western colleagues have become rather successful at it.”
But military leaders remain skeptical – and on high alert. The Associated Press reports:
“We won’t believe when we hear, we’ll believe when we see. When we see troops pulling out, we’ll believe in de-escalation,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said.
Speaking in Brussels, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said: “So far, we have not seen any de-escalation on the ground, not seen any signs of reduced Russian military presence on the borders of Ukraine.”
However, he added that there are “some grounds for cautious optimism” for diplomatic efforts, given the signals coming from Moscow in recent days.
Stoltenberg said Russia has in the past moved into areas with troops and equipment, then pulled back leaving military materiel in place for rapid use later. He said that NATO wants to see a “significant and enduring withdrawal of forces, troops, and not least the heavy equipment.”
The Times adds:
The [partial troop withdrawal] announcement came a day after Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said that diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis were “far from exhausted,” suggesting that the Kremlin would continue negotiations with the West rather than launch immediate military action. In a sign that Moscow was seeking to add to its leverage, lawmakers in Russia’s Kremlin-backed lower house of Parliament on Tuesday asked President Vladimir V. Putin to recognize breakaway states in eastern Ukraine as independent, a move that would further inflame tensions between the two.
The Wall Street Journal provides key analysis:
The impact of a potential approval by Mr. Putin isn’t immediately evident. If he recognizes the republics, he may be able to declare he is standing up for Russian interests and has made the West listen to Moscow’s security demands with his military buildup. At the same time, recognition of the republics could give him the chance to send weapons and troops onto their territories following scripted appeals for his help, and potentially give him a pretext to attack Ukraine in the name of defending Russia’s allies while continuing to weaken Kyiv using economic and other tools.
On Tuesday, Putin met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The two nations have deep economic ties which would be imperiled in the event of a military conflict.
Russia wants to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Western nations are unwilling to let Russia dictate its alliances.
