At last, they have arrived: the Iowa caucuses, when Americans begin the process of choosing whether the presidency of Donald Trump will be over one year from now — or continue for another four.
The Washington Post puts it this way:
“Finally, after three years of a presidency like none other, after street protests and raucous rallies, after awkward Thanksgiving dinners and broken friendships, after predictions of fractured democracy and celebrations of disrupted government,” Americans will vote “on whether to turn away from smash-mouth politics or double down on a presidency that serves as a national blowoff valve.”
For Democrats determined to unseat Trump, it should be a moment of exhilaration.
But for many, it feels more like exhaustion — and a distinct lack of optimism for tonight’s outcome in Iowa.
There’s a near-consensus among analysts on both sides that in 2020, Iowa is not the swing-state it has been for decades, no longer “a quintessential general-election battleground.,” as Politco characterizes it.
“The trends here are much more red than purple,” Ben Foecke, former executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party, told Politico. “I could see that swinging back at some point, but probably not with Trump on the ballot.”
So, to specifics:
The Iowa caucuses are nothing like the primaries held in most states. While both parties will caucus tonight, competition will be entirely among the Democrats.
Eleven major candidates remain in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. The top four, according to pollsters, are Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg.
All registered Democrats who will be of voting age by Election Day are eligible to caucus. They divide themselves into groups according to the candidate of their choice.
Candidates must receive at least 15% of all the votes cast to be considered “viable.” Then comes “realignment,” when supporters of non-viable candidates can either go home or throw their support to another candidate.
There’s much more, but in the end, delegates to the National Democratic Convention are alloted to supporters of the remaining viable candidates according to the number of caucus votes they receive.
The Iowa Democratic Party won’t declare an official winner, though traditionally it’s thought to be the one with the most delegates. Still, other candidates are free to spin any success they might have seen in the early caucus rounds — with potential impact on the continuing race for the nomination.
“Iowa awards just 41 delegates to the Democratic National Convention, a tiny fraction of the more than 1,900 required to become the party’s nominee,” notes the New York Times.
“But all the candidates … agree that whoever wins, or at least overperforms expectations, will suddenly have momentum as the field moves to New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and beyond.”
