Scientists who studied the genetic sequences of thousands of Covid-19 coronavirus samples report that one of many mutations accumulated during 2020 may have made it more contagious than ever
They also found that Covid-19 is likely to strike in two waves, the second seemingly worse than the first.
The study, by researchers in Houston and elsewhere, is not yet peer-reviewed [critiqued by outside experts], but it “appears to be the largest single aggregation of genetic sequences of the virus in the United States thus far,” reports the Washington Post. One British study was significantly larger, but with similar findings.
“The research shows that the virus disseminated across Houston neighborhoods in two waves, first striking wealthier and older individuals but then spreading, in the second wave, to younger people and lower income neighborhoods — affecting many Latino city residents,” the Post said.
Significantly, the new study indicates that the mutation in question is not deadlier than others. But of course, when more people get sick, more will die.
“All viruses accumulate genetic mutations, and most are insignificant,” the Post says. What’s more, the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which causes Covid-19, is “relatively stable as viruses go,” scientists say.
“But every mutation is a roll of the dice, and with transmission so widespread in the United States — which continues to see tens of thousands of new, confirmed infections daily — the virus has had abundant opportunities to change, potentially with troublesome consequences,” the Post says, citing study author James Musser of Houston Methodist Hospital.
“We have given this virus a lot of chances,” Musser told the Post. “There is a huge population size out there right now.”
As of Thursday afternoon, the Johns Hopkins Covid-19 Dashboard showed there have been nearly 7 million Covid-19 cases in the U.S., along with 202,467 deaths.
One expert who reviewed the new study suggested that the virus could mutate in such a way that it could evade our current means of protection.
“Wearing masks, washing our hands, all those things are barriers to transmissibility, or contagion, but as the virus becomes more contagious it statistically is better at getting around those barriers,” said virologist David Morens, senior adviser to Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
This could remain true, Morens warns, even after a vaccine is ready for widespread distribution.
“[I]t is well within the realm of possibility that … when our population-level immunity gets high enough, this coronavirus will find a way to get around our immunity,” he told the Post.
“If that happened, we’d be in the same situation as with flu. We’ll have to chase the virus and, as it mutates, we’ll have to tinker with our vaccine.”
