Senator Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, called the reconciliation bill his party is desperate to pass through Congress “fiscal insanity” on Wednesday night.

Manchin statement: “While I am hopeful that common ground can be found that would result in another historic investment in our nation, I cannot – and will not – support trillions in spending or an all or nothing approach that ignores the brutal fiscal reality our nation faces” pic.twitter.com/o4SfquXHOj

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) September 29, 2021

His statement dooms the short-term success of the $3.5 trillion spending package that funds social safety net initiatives like expanded Medicare, increased child care, and universal pre-k. All Senate Democrats must vote for the bill in order for it to advance to the House.

If it fails to advance, progressives in the lower chamber say they’ll pull their support for the $1.2 trillion dollar infrastructure bill that invests in the nation’s roads, waterways, and public transportation systems, among other initiatives. A vote on that bill is scheduled for Thursday.

After hearing Manchin’s “fiscal insanity” remarks, the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), told reporters “This is why we’re not voting for the bipartisan [infrastructure] bill until we get a reconciliation bill. After that statement we probably have even more people willing to vote no.”

Bottomline: Democrats hoped to pass both bills by the end of the September. Now it seems clear they’ll pass neither within that time frame.

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, a Biden confidante, told CNN “It’s not some major cataclysm if there isn’t a vote today.” She added, “Mark my words. The infrastructure bill will get passed & a version of the reconciliation bill will as well.”

Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) are the lone obstacles to passing the reconciliation bill (which would trigger the needed support on infrastructure spending).

Wow – @SenatorDurbin on CNN to @Sen_JoeManchin & @SenatorSinema – "Now it’s time for both senators – make your mark and close the deal." They've been treated respectfully. Speaking to Manchin – "WE can't delay these things…We are one heart beat away from losing the majority"

— Trish Turner (@caphilltrish) September 29, 2021

Manchin said lawmakers need more time to negotiate specific elements of the reconciliation package. In his Wednesday statement, he expressed concern that the $3.5 trillion in spending it entails would create inflation “that could weaken our economic recovery.” He said he wanted to set income thresholds for several of the social program expansions in the package.

He added, “America is a great nation but great nations throughout history have been weakened by careless spending and bad policies.”

In a hopeful sign for his Democratic colleagues, Manchin said he wants to “fix the flaws of the 2017 tax bill and ensure everyone pays their fair share.” That may signal support for the tax increases on wealthy Americans and successful corporations that Democrats want to use to fund the social safety net initiatives.

On Thursday, POLITICO reported that Manchin had previously told the White House that he thinks the reconciliation package should be capped at $1.5 trillion.

It is unclear what specific objections Sinema has to the reconciliation package.

Meanwhile, Democrats plan to pass a stopgap measure Thursday to temporarily fund the U.S. government and avoid a shutdown.

Within the next three weeks, they’ll also have to raise the debt ceiling.

Writing in The New York Times, reporter Maggie Astor said of the state of play in Washington, “It’s a great big dumpster full of substantive political disagreements and cynical posturing, tangled so tightly together that it can be hard to tell which is which. And the stakes are alarmingly high.